The season opens under the lights in Orchard Park, and the market expects fireworks. Buffalo is favored by 1.5 at home, the total sits at 50.5, and both Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are lined at 229.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns. That’s a classic primetime setup: two MVP-level quarterbacks, a high total, and plenty of ways to play the board. If you’re zeroing in on Bills angles, three props stand out for both value and fit with how this matchup usually plays out.

• Josh Allen anytime touchdown (+100)
• Josh Allen under 33.5 rushing yards (-110)
• Zay Flowers over 58.5 receiving yards

Odds are from early week and can move. Always shop numbers, especially on key thresholds like 33.5 rushing yards and 58.5 receiving yards where a half-yard swing matters.

Bills props: Allen to score, Allen to run less

The case for a Josh Allen touchdown at even money is straightforward. Over the past two seasons, Allen has racked up 28 rushing touchdowns and found the end zone in 58.8% of his games. At +100, the implied probability is 50%. You’re getting a price that’s below his recent hit rate, which is exactly the kind of edge you want in a noisy Week 1 market.

This isn’t only about designed quarterback runs. Buffalo’s red-zone identity leans heavily on Allen’s size and power on sneaks, rollouts, and broken plays. Inside the five, the Bills often trust Allen more than a traditional short-yardage back. That matters against Baltimore, which loves to blitz and force quick decisions. A muddy pocket near the goal line often turns into Allen lowering his shoulder for two yards and six points. New season, same math.

Scheme helps, too. Joe Brady is entering his first full year running the offense after taking over midseason in 2023. Under Brady, the Bills leaned into efficiency—more motion, quicker answers against pressure, and a cleaner red-zone plan. When things bog down, Allen’s legs remain the bailout. You don’t need 10 designed carries to cash this ticket; you need one snap on the 1-yard line or a scramble lane when the Ravens’ rush loses contain.

There’s a counterpoint: Baltimore finished among the league’s best defenses last year, kept its system continuity under new coordinator Zach Orr, and brings heat from everywhere. That’s fine. Pressure near the stripe often helps QB rushing TDs as much as it hurts them. If the edges fly upfield and the interior gets washed, Allen’s path is simple—follow the crease and finish.

Now the other side of the Allen ledger: under 33.5 rushing yards. It can feel odd to play Allen to score with his legs and also fade his yardage, but those two outcomes aren’t at odds. Allen can hit paydirt on a 1-yard sneak and still finish with 20–30 rushing yards. The Bills have steadily tried to limit his between-the-20s exposure while keeping his red-zone role. That trend fit last season, when he averaged a touch over 30 rushing yards per game.

Stylistically, this matchup leans under his rushing total. Baltimore’s rush plan under Mike Macdonald—and now Orr, who keeps the same DNA—disciplines the edges and uses simulated pressure to flood throwing lanes without giving up easy scramble exits. Allen will take the free completions if the numbers say throw. Expect more quick-game, running back involvement (hello, James Cook), and selective QB keepers in high-leverage spots rather than sustained scramble volume.

Game script supports the under, too. If Buffalo grabs a lead at home, Brady can lean on rhythm passing and Cook to keep the chains moving. If the Ravens control tempo with their ground game, the Bills may answer with pace and short throws rather than turning Allen into a designated runner in Week 1. Either way, it doesn’t take many plays to sink a rushing-yard under, but the path here points to measured usage on the ground, not a 10-carry night.

One more practical note: 33.5 is a sensitive number for a quarterback like Allen. If the market floats to 34.5, those few yards become even more valuable. If it slips to 31.5, the edge narrows. Timing your bet—and grabbing the best shop—matters.

Ravens counterpunch: Zay Flowers vs. a reshaped Bills secondary

This one is technically a Ravens prop, but it runs right through Buffalo’s changes on defense. Zay Flowers over 58.5 receiving yards makes sense for two reasons: his role in Year 2 and the Bills’ transition on the back end. Flowers led Baltimore’s wide receivers as a rookie and finished with 800-plus yards. Todd Monken fed him touches in motion, on crossers, and off quick-hitters that let him turn short gains into chunk plays. That usage tends to travel well in tough road environments.

Buffalo’s secondary, meanwhile, looks different. The team moved on from long-time veterans at safety, turned over snaps with younger pieces, and will rely heavily on Taron Johnson inside plus outside corners who must pass off routes cleanly. Early season is when communication gets tested—especially against pre-snap motion and layered route concepts. Monken is happy to stress those rules. Flowers, in particular, is the guy Baltimore uses to probe for coverage busts and leverage mismatches.

The presence of Mark Andrews only helps. Safety attention tilts his way on key downs, which opens the middle for Flowers on digs, overs, and quick outs. Add Derrick Henry to the mix, and you get heavier boxes and more credible play-action. Even if the Ravens want to set a physical tone, a high total and the threat of Buffalo’s offense usually force balanced playcalling by the second quarter. Flowers doesn’t need 10 targets to clear this number; four or five quality looks can do it if one turns into a 20-plus-yard gain.

There’s also a pace angle. The total at 50.5 suggests sustained scoring chances on both sides. If the Bills land early punches—and their home splits often pop under the lights—Baltimore will lean into tempo and pass volume in response. Flowers is the natural beneficiary of those drives. He’s also the first-read on many scripted throws to settle Lamar into rhythm on the road.

Could Buffalo blunt this with pressure? Sure. The Bills still generate heat with four and have a strong nickel package. But pressure doesn’t automatically kill a Flowers over. His routes are designed to beat the blitz—quick crossers, screens, and option routes where he and Lamar read leverage together. All you need is steady involvement and a couple of yards-after-catch moments to find the 60-yard range.

How do these three props fit together? They line up with a likely shape of the game: Buffalo pushes early with efficient offense, uses Allen’s legs in the red zone more than in the open field, and Baltimore answers through its go-to chain mover in Flowers. If that script holds, you can win the Allen TD and the rushing under without contradiction while riding Flowers’ volume in a high-total environment.

A few quick housekeeping items if you’re building a card:

• Allen anytime TD at +100 is priced below his two-year scoring rate (58.8%). That’s real value on a single event.
• The under 33.5 rushing yards hinges on usage, not talent. Expect selective designed runs and fewer freelance scrambles.
• Flowers over 58.5 pairs well with any expectation of a chase script or heavy play-action usage.
• Both QBs sit at 229.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing TDs. If you like the totals, correlate your positions—overs pair with Flowers, while an Allen rushing under doesn’t fight an Allen red-zone TD.

Two final watch items before kickoff at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC: wind at Highmark Stadium and late-week injury reports in the secondary on both sides. Wind matters more than rain for passing and kicking; a calm night keeps the over props cleaner. As for injuries, any scratch at corner or safety nudges Flowers’ outlook, and any offensive line shuffle can tilt Allen’s scrambling calculus.

It’s Week 1, so don’t overextend. But the numbers here aren’t just vibes—they’re backed by how these teams want to win. Allen remains Buffalo’s best short-yardage runner. The staff wants to manage his hits between the 20s. And Flowers is Baltimore’s best bet to stress a defense that’s still knitting new pieces together.